2018 Winter February 4 Sunday

36 degrees this morning, walk 34:38 minutes 

Overall good walk this morning, didn’t really feel the cold other than right at the first.  I will be glad when warmer weather arrives.  

Second time I have walked 34:38 minutes in past week.

I think I forget just how long the cold weather lasts.  It isn’t like it is a bitter cold, it is just a nuisance cold temperature.  

I believe the forecast is for much colder weather this week and possible rain or freezing rain.  Of course freezing rain is what everyone dreads, even more than snow.  

Weekend is now halfway over, it goes fast.

A Newsletter concerning the “future” recently had an interesting article about the “cycles” of civilization, especially generational cycles. I believe I have read similar theoretical constructs, including on organizational cycles.

Frankly I disagree with a lot of their theory, much of at the latter part of the article is just an attempt to justify the lunatics agenda, in my opinion, but I still found much of the article interesting.  

They attempt to relate these cycles to social, economic and political change.  Of course each cycle is roughly a generation (20-30 years).  Briefly, they say there are four “ages” or “turnings”.

-First “turning”:    “High” period of unity and achievement

-Second “turning” “Awakening”  values of old order are challenged

-Third “unraveling” during which institutions weaken due to the galleons thet emerge during second turning

. 

-Fourth turning, New order and institutions replaces the old order

While you can prove any theory by history by “picking and choosing”, I found the analysis interesting.  

I have observed the same thing in cities and other organizations, there is frequently a short period when substantial advancements can be made and the rest to the time there is either turmoil or lethargy and not much gets accomplished.  Of course, accomplishments are in the eye of the beholder. 

However, there are also “black swans”, cities, organizations etc. who have significant accomplishments on a long-term and regular basis and don’t follow this cycle.  

It would be interesting to study and analyze why this theory (of the four “turnings” or ages) does not fit all organizations or countries. 

I found this concept interesting both in the current environment and a review of history.  

More on this in later posts.  I planned on discussing the “archetypes” of each change or the type of person who typifies each cycle, but this will be a future post. 

I did find interesting that the article called older people “elders” or “elderhood”.  I’ll have to think about that one.

That’s it for now, Sunday, February 4, 2018.